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href="http://connect.qq.com/widget/shareqq/index.html?url=http://bizvcw.com/xinwen/project/7625.html&title=伍戈：2021年经济修复空间几何？" target="_blank"></a><a class="social-share-icon icon-weibo" href="http://service.weibo.com/share/share.php?url=http://bizvcw.com/xinwen/project/7625.html&title=伍戈：2021年经济修复空间几何？" target="_blank"></a><a class="social-share-icon icon-wechat" href="javascript:"> <div class="wechat-qrcode"> <h4>微信扫一扫：分享</h4> <div class="qrcode" title="http://bizvcw.com/xinwen/project/7625.html"> <canvas width="100" height="100" style="display: none;"></canvas> <img alt="Scan me!" src="/qr/api.php?url=http://bizvcw.com/xinwen/project/7625.html&p=3.4&m=1" style="display: block;"></div> <div class="help"> <p>微信里点"发现"，扫一下</p> <p>二维码便可将本文分享至朋友圈。</p> </div> </div> </a></div> </div> </div> <p>　　庚子终逝，瘟病未销。辛丑之年，经济或坦途或波折，皆与疫情相关。中国快进快出，2021年修复空间几何？政策常态化运行，经济扩张还能持续多久？</p> <p>　　一、第二波疫情下经济波澜不惊</p> <p>　　与第一波疫情不同，世界经济似已呈“免疫”特征，虽确诊和死亡人数屡创新高但经济波澜不惊。究其原因，各国封锁措施已更具针对性，需求刺激仍规模空前；此外，不少行业似较快适应线下办公向线上转变，供给韧性显著提升。</p> <p>　　二、缺口所在，即动能所在？</p> <p>　　疫情冲击引致了诸多尚未弥合的缺口。海外来看，需求回升但供给未能跟上，供给缺口明显。尽管未来海外供给能力有望逐步修复，但微观证据表明，订单往往存在一定“粘性”，短期内不易迅速转移，中国出口仍能有所作为。</p> <p>　　国内来看，疫情对民众某些消费习惯等影响或是永久性的，但参照历史上西班牙流感和亚洲流感等重大疫情的经历，整体服务消费回到疫情前可以期待。目前中国消费、服务业离常态仍有差距，该需求缺口或正是未来经济动能。</p> <p>　　三、政策常态化，经济转向？</p> <p>　　前期持续的社融扩张与贷款利率下行都似已现转折，政策常态化运行是大势所趋。但历史表明，前期社融收缩与经济增长拐点之间，往往存在6个月左右的时滞，因此并不必然意味着经济立即转向。</p> <p>　　2021年，预计中国还将继续填补海外供给缺口和国内需求缺口。叠加前期货币扩张和财政积极的滞后影响，经济或仍具备半年左右的扩张“惯性”。即使排除基数干扰，真实经济也未必羸弱。不过，随着政策常态化及经济扩张惯性消退，房地产动能有望回落，赤字率降低后基建或走弱。2021年年中过后，整体经济动能或将趋缓。(中新经纬APP)</p> <p>　</p> <div class="source"> 本文来源： <a class="blue" href="javascript:void(0)"> 每日商业报道 </a> <span class="left"> 文章作者：伍戈</span> </div> <div class="br-news-prompt"> <p>声明：《每日商业报道》网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。</p> </div> <div class="br-news-pl"> <script> function CheckPl(obj) { if(obj.saytext.value=="") { alert("您没什么话要说吗？"); 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